Those that know me know that I'm a huge political junkie. I thrive on politics. Elections turn me on. The theory combined with the realities and all the unpredictable elements, it makes me hot. I love to talk about it, I love debating it, it's the only other thing I would want to do for a living. (Besides my secret desire to go to culinary school.)
So why have I stopped caring?
Yes, I have stopped caring. Me. Ms. Amateur Political Analyst. When did I stop caring? Oh, about a month ago, when the democratic party STILL didn't have a goddamn nominee. Now, don't get we wrong. I will start caring soon. And I love looking at the theory! Primary schedules, county and precinct locations, negative vs. positive ads, timing, undecideds, etc. And the possibility of a floor fight is amazing! It's been years since there's been one, and that I might get to see is one really great.
In theory.
To see how dangerous this is, you have to look at the numbers. This is the democratic primary schedule, with the remaining ones at the bottom. Now, Obama has just over 200 delegates left until he gets to the magic number, 2025. Hilary Clinton has just under 400. Now, even after tonight's delegates are counted up, Hilary won't be much closer. No one will be. With everyone as split as they are, looking at the math (thank you, CNN!), Obama can do it, but just barely. Hilary has to actually go out and change minds to get to 2025, and the chance of that happening at this stage in the game is incredibly unlikely. The issue is that neither of them will get to 2025 before we hit the end of June. And that means a tough floor fight, since an entire state will have to defect, or the superdelegates will have to make a decision. That makes us, as democrats, look horrible to the really tiny percentage of undecideds and independents out there who will actually decide this election.
Now, before I get into Michigan and Florida, I want to say that while I'm an Obama supporter, I'm on the edge of not caring. Obama is a great speaker, surely a candidate of change, he's inspirational, and he makes me feel hopeful about politics and the future -- I haven't felt inspired or hopeful about politics in a long time. But I'm concerned that there isn't any actual substance behind the talk. Hilary grates on me, I'm having a hard time listening to her, relating to her, looking at her, or supporting the way she's run her campaign (and it's hard for me to say these things, because it's far, far past fucking due for a female president). But she has actual ideas behind what she says, and she's the candidate of experience. I don't always agree with what she says, but at least she's saying things. So this is where I am. I'm going with my gut, because I'd rather watch and listen to Obama than hear Hilary harp on about whatever. As to who can beat John McCain? I haven't the faintest idea. But I'll get to that.
One of my biggest quibbles with Hilary (and her campaign) is that they're still fucking talking about the Michigan and Florida primaries. Now, let's recap that situation. The Democratic National Committee set a date for the first primaries awhile ago. Those are the rules. Michigan and Florida decided not to follow the rules and schedule their primaries before the first ones that the DNC set. It's not that Michigan and Florida were confused; they decided to schedule their primaries whenever they wanted to. Now, even though the DNC can't control Michigan and Florida if they break they rules, they set the rules and they decide the consequences. The punishment for just willy nilly deciding to toss the DNC rules aside in a rush to be relevant? The lose their delegates. Michigan and Florida knew this even before the primaries took place, as did everyone. So, since there were no actual delegates at stake, Barack Obama decided not to put himself on the ballot of a meaningless contest. Hilary Clinton, for reasons past understanding (though not so much now), decided to put her name on the ballot. So consequently, Hilary got nearly all the democratic votes in those states. Now, while you may think that actual votes count in this contest, it's like the actual election. The number of votes you get equals the number of delegates you get. Only, unlike the general election, states can split their delegates. But none of that delegate stuff matters in this case, since Michigan and Florida aren't getting any delegates. So while Hilary got votes in Michigan and Florida, in reality, Hilary got nothing. Nothing but unearned bragging rights. (You know, since SHE WASN'T ACTUALLY COMPETING AGAINST ANYONE.)
So now that we've recapped, what's the problem? Well, since Hilary's running a little short on delegates, she's been calling for the counting of the Michigan and Florida votes! Only, if you remember, she was the only person on that ballot, so it's not fucking fair. (Yeah, I know, fair is for tourists, but that much egregious unfairness won't go unnoticed even by the press.) So she's calling for a re-vote. Simple, right? Wrong. There are two issues with that. First: the cost. It would cost nearly $100 million to schedule a re-vote in both states. Neither state wants to foot the bill (since they both suck), and the DNC won't either, so unless Hilary wants to fork over the cash herself, it's not happening. Second: the DNC maintains that Michigan and Florida willingly and knowingly broke the rules, and therefore won't get money for a re-vote, and shouldn't get a re-vote anyway. Now, as unfair as that might seem (millions of people not getting their say in the democratic process, including many key Obama strongholds), it's actually quite fair. The democratic leadership of Michigan and Florida should be publicly taken to task for what they did, since it's their fault. But there isn't going to be a re-vote, and so Hilary and her talking heads need to stop whining about it. It's over. Move on. SERIOUSLY.
You know what I'm also tired of? Hilary saying that in national polls, she's beating John McCain while Barack Obama isn't. Apparently, that's reason enough to choose her! Except for this: any poll done at this time on the general election candidates is complete and utter bullshit. John McCain has been the republican nominee for what seems like years now. He's solid, he's in there, and he's gotten nothing but good press while Obama and Hilary go at it like the inbred Manning brothers. (Oh, God, do I hate the Giants.) OF COURSE people are going to say they'll vote for him. And regardless of the numbers, Hilary has no basis to claim a popular victory yet, because every poll should (I'm not saying does, I'm saying should) include this question: "Who would you vote for, John McCain, Hilary Clinton, or Barack Obama?" The fact that people are in reality deciding between three candidates (and not two, regardless of whether they're being asked about just two candidates) means that every poll (even ones with that question) is shit. You can't expect people to decide between John McCain and a candidate to be named later! Saying "I'll vote for Hilary" is saying that you'll vote for a hypothetical. Asking people to answer these "Obama vs. McCain" or "Hilary vs. McCain" questions now is downright moronic, and the fact that people are actually treating the results like actual, meaningful results is imbecilic.
Ok. I'm done caring now. I always get riled up when I watch CNN. It's mostly Anderson Cooper's panel of talking heads. I can only take so much of the same things being said over and over again. They're just adding fuel to the fire, having Obama and Hilary supporters go at it on TV. I'm so tired of it. Can we just get a fucking candidate? Can we please end this national embarrassment?
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